Jury Vs Televote – 130 Songs Later, Have We Learned Anything New?

Since the rule changes separating the jury vote from the televote in 2016, 130 songs have performed at a Eurovision Grand Final. In that time five new winners were crowned, the nil points club gained new members and songs have divided Europe’s tastes. Sure five contests isn’t a massive sample size but surely now we can at least begin to make sense of just how different (or similar) these two voting groups are?

One problem when looking across years is that not every song has been compared with every other song. We therefore have to make the assumption that a song that did well in year x, would have performed equally well in year y. Maybe for that reason it is a good thing to only be looking at a short span of years.

The other problem we encounter is that different years had a different number of participating countries and as a result a different number of points up on offer. To get around this we consider the percentage of the maximum vote possible in that year that each country got. From this we then have some comparable units. The percentage maximum vote can easily be calculated by taking 12 (the maximum number of points one country can allocate via jury or televote) and multiplying it by the number of other participating countries that year. To get a percentage we simply divided the jury or the televote by this maximum point number and then multiplied by 100.

Who Rocked The Televote?

Rather encouragingly for the relevance of televoting in a hybrid system, all five winners appear in the top ten of the televotes. Russia 2016 does particularly well considering it takes the second spot on the list comfortably despite only coming third overall, at the actual contest. Trailing behind at the rear end of this list, we have seven songs which unfortunately did not receive marks from the televote. Of note is that five of these songs (the exceptions being Austria and Czechia) were automatic qualifiers to the Grand Final. These two songs however appeared in years with 42 countries giving them more missed chances for points than the other nil pointers.

Rank	Year	Country	Televote	No. Countries	Max Televote Points	% Max Televote
1	2017	Portugal	376	42	492	76.42
2	2016	Russia	361	42	492	73.37
3	2021	Italy	318	39	456	69.74
4	2017	Bulgaria	337	42	492	68.50
5	2016	Ukraine	323	42	492	65.65
6	2018	Israel	317	43	504	62.90
7	2019	Norway	291	41	480	60.63
8	2021	Ukraine	267	39	456	58.55
9	2021	France	251	39	456	55.04
10	2019	Netherlands	261	41	480	54.38
11	2017	Moldova	264	42	492	53.66
12	2019	Italy	253	41	480	52.71
13	2017	Belgium	255	42	492	51.83
14	2019	Russia	244	41	480	50.83
15	2018	Cyprus	253	43	504	50.20
16	2018	Italy	249	43	504	49.40
17	2021	Finland	218	39	456	47.81
18	2017	Romania	224	42	492	45.53
19	2016	Poland	222	42	492	45.12
20	2019	Switzerland	212	41	480	44.17
21	2018	Czechia	215	43	504	42.66
22	2017	Italy	208	42	492	42.28
23	2021	Iceland	180	39	456	39.47
24	2016	Australia	191	42	492	38.82
25	2019	Iceland	186	41	480	38.75
26	2018	Denmark	188	43	504	37.30
27	2016	Bulgaria	180	42	492	36.59
28	2021	Switzerland	165	39	456	36.18
28	2021	Lithuania	165	39	456	36.18
30	2017	Hungary	152	42	492	30.89
31	2016	Sweden	139	42	492	28.25
32	2019	Australia	131	41	480	27.29
33	2016	Armenia	134	42	492	27.24
34	2018	Germany	136	43	504	26.98
35	2017	Sweden	126	42	492	25.61
36	2016	Austria	120	42	492	24.39
37	2018	Ukraine	119	43	504	23.61
38	2018	Moldova	115	43	504	22.82
39	2016	France	109	42	492	22.15
40	2021	Russia	100	39	456	21.93
41	2017	Croatia	103	42	492	20.93
42	2019	Azerbaijan	100	41	480	20.83
43	2018	Estonia	102	43	504	20.24
44	2016	Lithuania	96	42	492	19.51
45	2019	Sweden	93	41	480	19.38
46	2017	France	90	42	492	18.29
47	2018	Lithuania	91	43	504	18.06
48	2021	Serbia	82	39	456	17.98
49	2021	Greece	79	39	456	17.32
50	2018	Norway	84	43	504	16.67
51	2016	Serbia	80	42	492	16.26
52	2018	Serbia	75	43	504	14.88
53	2016	Azerbaijan	73	42	492	14.84
54	2018	Austria	71	43	504	14.09
55	2021	Sweden	63	39	456	13.82
56	2021	Moldova	62	39	456	13.60
57	2019	San Marino	65	41	480	13.54
58	2021	Norway	60	39	456	13.16
59	2018	Bulgaria	66	43	504	13.10
60	2018	Hungary	65	43	504	12.90
61	2016	Latvia	63	42	492	12.80
62	2018	Ireland	62	43	504	12.30
63	2019	Slovenia	59	41	480	12.29
64	2019	North Macedonia	58	41	480	12.08
65	2018	France	59	43	504	11.71
66	2018	Albania	58	43	504	11.51
67	2016	Hungary	56	42	492	11.38
68	2019	Serbia	54	41	480	11.25
69	2019	Spain	53	41	480	11.04
70	2016	Cyprus	53	42	492	10.77
71	2019	Denmark	51	41	480	10.63
72	2016	Belgium	51	42	492	10.37
73	2021	Malta	47	39	456	10.31
74	2019	Estonia	48	41	480	10.00
75	2019	Albania	47	41	480	9.79
76	2021	Cyprus	44	39	456	9.65
77	2017	Azerbaijan	42	42	492	8.54
78	2017	Poland	41	42	492	8.33
79	2016	Netherlands	39	42	492	7.93
80	2019	France	38	41	480	7.92
81	2021	Albania	35	39	456	7.68
82	2019	Israel	35	41	480	7.29
83	2021	Azerbaijan	33	39	456	7.24
84	2016	Italy	34	42	492	6.91
85	2017	Belarus	33	42	492	6.71
85	2016	Croatia	33	42	492	6.71
87	2019	Cyprus	32	41	480	6.67
88	2021	Bulgaria	30	39	456	6.58
89	2017	Cyprus	32	42	492	6.50
90	2018	Netherlands	32	43	504	6.35
91	2021	Portugal	27	39	456	5.92
92	2017	Norway	29	42	492	5.89
92	2017	Greece	29	42	492	5.89
94	2019	Greece	24	41	480	5.00
95	2018	United Kingdom	25	43	504	4.96
96	2016	Georgia	24	42	492	4.88
96	2017	Ukraine	24	42	492	4.88
98	2018	Slovenia	23	43	504	4.56
98	2018	Finland	23	43	504	4.56
100	2021	Israel	20	39	456	4.39
101	2017	Armenia	21	42	492	4.27
102	2019	Malta	20	41	480	4.17
103	2018	Sweden	21	43	504	4.17
104	2018	Spain	18	43	504	3.57
104	2018	Portugal	18	43	504	3.57
106	2016	Malta	16	42	492	3.25
107	2017	Netherlands	15	42	492	3.05
108	2021	San Marino	13	39	456	2.85
109	2019	Belarus	13	41	480	2.71
110	2017	United Kingdom	12	42	492	2.44
111	2016	Israel	11	42	492	2.24
112	2016	Spain	10	42	492	2.03
112	2016	Germany	10	42	492	2.03
114	2018	Australia	9	43	504	1.79
115	2017	Denmark	8	42	492	1.63
115	2016	United Kingdom	8	42	492	1.63
117	2019	Czechia	7	41	480	1.46
118	2017	Israel	5	42	492	1.02
118	2017	Spain	5	42	492	1.02
120	2021	Belgium	3	39	456	0.66
121	2019	United Kingdom	3	41	480	0.63
122	2017	Germany	3	42	492	0.61
123	2017	Australia	2	42	492	0.41
124	2021	Netherlands	0	39	456	0.00
124	2021	Spain	0	39	456	0.00
124	2021	Germany	0	39	456	0.00
124	2021	United Kingdom	0	39	456	0.00
128	2019	Germany	0	41	480	0.00
129	2017	Austria	0	42	492	0.00
129	2016	Czechia	0	42	492	0.00

And The Juries’ Choices Were?

The top televote song, Portugal 2017, also appears top of the juries’ list. The scale of Portugal’s 2017 landslide victory is certainly not to be sniffed at! The only other winner joining them in the juries top ten is the Netherlands 2019. Is this a sign that the jurors are slightly out of touch or that the televote is still plagued by block voting? Possibly (probably) neither but it certainly is food for thought.

The juries seemingly spread points around more evenly amongst the songs with there only being three songs “gifted” the unfortunate reality of no marks. The bottom ten is once again unsurprisingly mainly automatic qualifiers (with Ukraine and Poland both also making an appearance). Although in saying that the juries did come closer to reaching their maximum allocation to one song, implying that when they are unanimous they can be even more so than that of their counterparts, the viewers at home in the televote.

Rank	Year	Country	Jury	No. Countries	Max Jury Points	% Max Jury
1	2017	Portugal	382	42	492	77.64
2	2016	Australia	320	42	492	65.04
3	2021	Switzerland	267	39	456	58.55
4	2017	Bulgaria	278	42	492	56.50
5	2021	France	248	39	456	54.39
6	2018	Austria	271	43	504	53.77
7	2019	North Macedonia	247	41	480	51.46
8	2019	Sweden	241	41	480	50.21
9	2018	Sweden	253	43	504	50.20
10	2019	Netherlands	237	41	480	49.38
11	2019	Italy	219	41	480	45.63
12	2021	Malta	208	39	456	45.61
13	2021	Italy	206	39	456	45.18
14	2017	Sweden	218	42	492	44.31
15	2021	Iceland	198	39	456	43.42
16	2016	Ukraine	211	42	492	42.89
17	2019	Azerbaijan	202	41	480	42.08
18	2018	Israel	212	43	504	42.06
19	2018	Germany	204	43	504	40.48
20	2018	Cyprus	183	43	504	36.31
21	2017	Australia	171	42	492	34.76
22	2019	Australia	153	41	480	31.88
23	2019	Switzerland	152	41	480	31.67
24	2019	Czechia	150	41	480	31.25
25	2021	Bulgaria	140	39	456	30.70
26	2016	France	148	42	492	30.08
27	2018	Estonia	143	43	504	28.37
28	2016	Malta	137	42	492	27.85
29	2021	Portugal	126	39	456	27.63
30	2017	Netherlands	135	42	492	27.44
31	2016	Russia	130	42	492	26.42
31	2016	Belgium	130	42	492	26.42
33	2019	Russia	126	41	480	26.25
34	2017	Norway	129	42	492	26.22
35	2016	Bulgaria	127	42	492	25.81
36	2017	Italy	126	42	492	25.61
37	2016	Israel	124	42	492	25.20
38	2018	Albania	126	43	504	25.00
39	2016	Sweden	122	42	492	24.80
40	2016	Armenia	115	42	492	23.37
41	2016	Netherlands	114	42	492	23.17
42	2021	Russia	104	39	456	22.81
43	2018	France	114	43	504	22.62
44	2017	Moldova	110	42	492	22.36
45	2017	Belgium	108	42	492	21.95
46	2021	Ukraine	97	39	456	21.27
47	2016	Lithuania	104	42	492	21.14
48	2017	United Kingdom	99	42	492	20.12
49	2021	Greece	91	39	456	19.96
50	2018	Bulgaria	100	43	504	19.84
51	2017	Austria	93	42	492	18.90
52	2018	Moldova	94	43	504	18.65
53	2016	Italy	90	42	492	18.29
54	2021	Finland	83	39	456	18.20
55	2019	Malta	87	41	480	18.13
56	2018	Lithuania	90	43	504	17.86
56	2018	Australia	90	43	504	17.86
58	2018	Netherlands	89	43	504	17.66
59	2016	Georgia	80	42	492	16.26
60	2019	Cyprus	77	41	480	16.04
61	2021	Israel	73	39	456	16.01
62	2017	Azerbaijan	78	42	492	15.85
63	2021	Belgium	71	39	456	15.57
64	2018	Ireland	74	43	504	14.68
65	2019	Denmark	69	41	480	14.38
66	2016	Latvia	69	42	492	14.02
66	2017	Denmark	69	42	492	14.02
68	2019	France	67	41	480	13.96
69	2016	Spain	67	42	492	13.62
70	2018	Czechia	66	43	504	13.10
71	2021	Lithuania	55	39	456	12.06
72	2018	Norway	60	43	504	11.90
73	2017	Romania	58	42	492	11.79
73	2017	Armenia	58	42	492	11.79
75	2018	Italy	59	43	504	11.71
76	2021	Moldova	53	39	456	11.62
77	2016	United Kingdom	54	42	492	10.98
78	2021	Cyprus	50	39	456	10.96
79	2016	Hungary	52	42	492	10.57
80	2019	Greece	50	41	480	10.42
81	2017	Belarus	50	42	492	10.16
82	2021	Sweden	46	39	456	10.09
83	2017	Hungary	48	42	492	9.76
83	2017	Greece	48	42	492	9.76
85	2019	Iceland	46	41	480	9.58
85	2019	Slovenia	46	41	480	9.58
87	2017	France	45	42	492	9.15
88	2019	Albania	43	41	480	8.96
89	2016	Azerbaijan	44	42	492	8.94
90	2016	Cyprus	43	42	492	8.74
91	2018	Spain	43	43	504	8.53
92	2019	Norway	40	41	480	8.33
93	2016	Czechia	41	42	492	8.33
94	2018	Slovenia	41	43	504	8.14
95	2016	Croatia	40	42	492	8.13
96	2021	San Marino	37	39	456	8.11
97	2018	Denmark	38	43	504	7.54
97	2018	Serbia	38	43	504	7.54
99	2017	Cyprus	36	42	492	7.32
100	2019	Serbia	35	41	480	7.29
101	2016	Serbia	35	42	492	7.11
102	2021	Azerbaijan	32	39	456	7.02
103	2017	Israel	34	42	492	6.91
104	2016	Austria	31	42	492	6.30
105	2019	Estonia	28	41	480	5.83
106	2018	Hungary	28	43	504	5.56
107	2017	Croatia	25	42	492	5.08
108	2019	Germany	24	41	480	5.00
109	2021	Albania	22	39	456	4.82
110	2017	Poland	23	42	492	4.67
111	2018	United Kingdom	23	43	504	4.56
111	2018	Finland	23	43	504	4.56
113	2021	Serbia	20	39	456	4.39
114	2018	Portugal	21	43	504	4.17
115	2019	Belarus	18	41	480	3.75
116	2021	Norway	15	39	456	3.29
117	2019	San Marino	12	41	480	2.50
118	2017	Ukraine	12	42	492	2.44
119	2021	Netherlands	11	39	456	2.41
120	2018	Ukraine	11	43	504	2.18
121	2019	United Kingdom	8	41	480	1.67
122	2016	Poland	7	42	492	1.42
123	2021	Spain	6	39	456	1.32
124	2021	Germany	3	39	456	0.66
125	2017	Germany	3	42	492	0.61
126	2019	Spain	1	41	480	0.21
127	2016	Germany	1	42	492	0.20
128	2021	United Kingdom	0	39	456	0.00
129	2019	Israel	0	41	480	0.00
130	2017	Spain	0	42	492	0.00

Jury Vs Televote Vs Overall Winner’s Places

Looking at the winners of the overall contest, the jury vote and the televote; we can compare where the other voting demographics placed these songs. Of course for a song to win the contest it is important to do well with both groupings, however to do well it can occasionally be only necessary to do well in one.

Year	Eurovision Jury Winner	Five Year Jury Rank	Five Year Televote Rank
2016	Australia	2	24
2017	Portugal	1	1
2018	Austria	6	54
2019	North Macedonia	7	64
2021	Switzerland	3	28

Year	Eurovision Televote Winner	Five Year Jury Rank	Five Year Televote Rank
2016	Russia	31	2
2017	Portugal	1	1
2018	Israel	18	6
2019	Norway	92	7
2021	Italy	13	3

Year	Eurovision Overall Winner	Five Year Jury Rank	Five Year Televote Rank
2016	Ukraine	16	5
2017	Portugal	1	1
2018	Israel	18	6
2019	Netherlands	10	10
2021	Italy	13	3

Let’s Break It Down

So have we learned anything new?

First of all I think it is pretty interesting that under this method of comparison the televote seems to agree with the overall winners a bit more than the jurors. Theoretically both groups have the same weighting on the overall outcome but when you consider that jurors rank all countries whereas televoters rank just their favourites, maybe it isn’t a surprise that the jury vote ends up a little more spread out.

Secondly, the scale of some of the disagreements in previous contests is even more apparent in these results. Particularly in years such as 2016 and 2019, where the winner was neither the same as those chosen by the jury or televoters. It is fascinating that Australia and Russia finish in second in these rankings.

Thirdly, these results would be great to sit down with and compare on a country by country basis. As further contests occur, it might be of worth keeping a five year rolling chart of their average jury/televote placements and see if countries are falling into or out of favour with a voting demographic over tme.

What Do You Conclude?

Of course I would love to hear what your take homes are from this data. Maybe some of you have already looked at this in depth, the more divisive rankings certainly make YouTube lists fairly frequently. If there is anything you think should be brought to this conversation please leave a comment or contact me on our social medias. Until next time folks!