By now most of you probably know that the Montenegrin broadcaster Radio Televizija Crne Gore (RTCG) has confirmed their Eurovision 2022 participation. This follows a planned absence in 2020 which was continued into the 2021 edition in Rotterdam. This is great news for us all, as a country with a long Eurovision tradition returns to bless us all with yet another song. With this return I thought it was a good opportunity to explore this tradition and maybe get a glimpse of what Eurovision 2022 has in store for the country and us!
An Exceedingly Brief History
What Can We Expect?
So what sort of entry can we expect to see from the Balkan nation?
If results are anything to go by, you may well expect to see Montenegro send a Balkan ballad. Both of their independent qualifications were of this genre, along with their best result as a part of Serbia & Montenegro! Montenegro certainly know how to encapsulate Europe with a great Balkan ballad.
This however only reflects a fraction of the diverse entries they have sent. They may have only participated eleven times independently but in that time they have given us Europop, rap, dance, ballads and even novelty numbers. Whether we get a more ‘competitive’ entry or see more of the country’s humour remains to be seen but if there is one thing about Montenegrin Eurovision entries, it is that they tend to be memorable.
The Promised Data
Of course having a country return to the contest reshuffles the dynamic of any contest. For us as a fan community this is an awesome thing! We get to experience another song, another culture and an extended voting sequence. How having another country in said voting sequence will influence the results is an interesting thing to look at altogether!
So which delegations theoretically should be helped and hindered by the return of Montenegro? Let’s dive into their voting patterns!
Donors And Benefactors
Looking at both semi-finals and grand finals, Montenegro has received points as an independent nation from 36 different nations. These being Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Italy, Latvia, Malta, Moldova, the Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine. Phew!
Of these Andorra and Germany are the only two countries who despite having given Montenegro points, have failed to receive at least one single point from Montenegro.
On the flip side, Montenegro has given points to 9 participating nations who have never given them a point. Namely, these are Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Georgia, Ireland, Lithuania, Poland and the United Kingdom. These range from a low of 2 total points to a high of 29.
Montenegro As A Winner Indicator?
Montenegro has given at least a point to every winner of the contest in the years they were competing (either in the semi or grand final). However, these points were extremely varied with a high of 12 points to Serbia in 2007 and lows of 1 points to Israel and the Netherlands (2018 & 2019 respectively). Only giving one point under the split 50:50 system is not exactly groundbreaking, considering you can give points to up to 20 countries in a field of 26.
Where Do Montenegro’s Points Go?
To answer this question there are of course a few possible methodologies. The most simple being to count up the number of total points a country has ever given to Montenegro. Doing this we find that Serbia has given Montenegro the most points in total at 69, closely followed by Slovenia at 63. Taking into consideration the number of opportunities these countries will have had to exchange points will of course impact these numbers though and need to be considered via averages.
These same principles apply for the points given by Montenegro to other nations. Simple totals would reveal that Montenegro has given 179 points to Serbia, followed distantly by Russia and Albania on 123 and 121 respectively.
On top of this, the voting system change further complicates matters. To make life easy I have simply regarded years under the current voting system as having two opportunities per encounter (as there are double the points on offer).
Armed with all this information, I was able to calculate an average amount of points given from and to Montenegro for each nation they have met in a contest. This creates a basic line of regression which estimates the average number of points given by Montenegro to a country from the average amount of points they received from them. Labelling the points also shows more clearly who would be classified in a voting block with Montenegro.
Dishing Out Points
Only five countries (Andorra, Armenia, Germany, Spain and Turkey) on average have received less points from Montenegro than they have given them. This is probably largely down to Montenegro’s low number of qualifications. Of the countries that do given Montenegro high points, they nearly always receive them back. The biggest exception to this rule is Russia who on average receives more points from Montenegro than fellow usual Balkan pot countries Croatia and Slovenia. Another noteworthy mention is Bulgaria who despite never having given Montenegro a point, receives an average of 3.22 each time they meet.
Averages Table
| Country | Average Points To Montenegro | Average Points From Montenegro |
| Serbia | 9.86 | 11.19 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 7.60 | 9.63 |
| North Macedonia | 6.75 | 8.50 |
| Albania | 6.14 | 9.31 |
| Slovenia | 5.25 | 5.94 |
| Armenia | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| Croatia | 4.25 | 6.00 |
| Azerbaijan | 3.40 | 4.63 |
| Turkey | 2.50 | 2.50 |
| San Marino | 2.42 | 3.00 |
| Ukraine | 2.00 | 4.31 |
| Malta | 2.00 | 3.33 |
| Greece | 1.64 | 4.05 |
| Moldova | 1.46 | 2.95 |
| Portugal | 1.20 | 1.86 |
| Sweden | 1.15 | 2.45 |
| Italy | 1.00 | 5.08 |
| Israel | 0.89 | 2.25 |
| Romania | 0.88 | 2.29 |
| Australia | 0.88 | 1.80 |
| Czechia | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Russia | 0.73 | 6.47 |
| Belarus | 0.71 | 2.00 |
| France | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| Denmark | 0.63 | 1.94 |
| Netherlands | 0.60 | 0.83 |
| Cyprus | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| Switzerland | 0.50 | 0.71 |
| Norway | 0.43 | 2.82 |
| Spain | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| Hungary | 0.36 | 2.30 |
| Andorra | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| Finland | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| Germany | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| Latvia | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| Iceland | 0.15 | 1.61 |
| Bulgaria | 0.00 | 3.22 |
| Belgium | 0.00 | 1.13 |
| Estonia | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ireland | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Poland | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Georgia | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Lithuania | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Austria | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| United Kingdom | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Looking At 2022’s Likely Line-up
So with our rough knowledge of who is expected to return to the contest, how does this effect Montenegro?
Even though Bosnia & Herzegovina received more points from Montenegro than they gave, they are still one of Montenegro’s most reliable point givers, so not having them around is less than ideal. Similarly with Turkey and Armenia’s participation up in the air, there are less almost sure-fire reliable countries for Montenegro to fall back on.
Saying all this, neither Bosnia & Herzegovina nor Turkey participated in either of the years Montenegro qualified for the final. A good song is a good song and should serve them well regardless of who can and cannot vote for them. Hopefully Montenegro once again brings something epic to Eurovision!